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So, I've been reading and watching reports that claim that nearly 15,000 Russian soldiers have died so far in Ukraine. Does that even seem possible? It's hard to believe anything the media says these days. Very tragic and stupid war. My heart goes out to the families of all that have been lost on both sides.
It is possible.
The losses are very high. The soldiers themselves have said they were told this would only take a few hours & here we are one month later. They weren't prepared for what they are facing.
In any on-going war, you obviously have to take anything either side says about the other side's loses with a whole shaker of salt. Not only do both sides have a vested interest in making things sound worse for their enemy and not that bad for themselves, it's impossible to keep an accurate body-count when those bodies are scattered around the countryside - often in small chunks.
The figure you cite of 15,000 Russian deaths is from the Ukrainians. It's highly likely it's an overstatement, but it might not be too far from the truth. It's definitely true that the Russians have been taking serious losses. If that wasn't the case, they would have rolled into Kyiv long before now.
There's a website called Oryx where people take photographs of destroyed and captured equipment that appear on social media, do their best to identify the particular model and the location, and try to eliminate any duplicate pictures of the same pile of mangled metal.
If anything, the numbers they post will be on the low side, since the Ukrainians are not carefully photographing everything they hit and posting the pic on social media. Even so, the totals of Russian losses are pretty damn shocking for a war that's only been going on for a month.
Leaving aside abandoned and captured equipment and totalling up only the destroyed main battle tanks, armoured fighting vehicles and infantry fighting vehicles (all of which are commonly called "tanks" by the media) and multiplying that number by the known crew-count of all the vehicles plus the passenger carrying capacity of the fighting vehicles results in a possible casualty count of around 6,000. It is true that it's sometimes possible to escape from an armoured vehicle that's been hit by a weapon that penetrates the armour, but the experience is going to seriously mess up your day at the very least, and it's fairly likely you'll be injured to such an extent that you'll be just as out of action as your buddies that are left smeared over the inside the vehicle.
As I said, this is a conservative estimate and only for the three most important classes of armoured vehicles. Lots of other Russian equipment has been destroyed by the Ukrainians. All of that equipment has crews, and it's highly likely that there were other troops close to it when it blew up. Even a basic transport truck will probably have at least one poor asshole inside, either driving or just sheltering from the shitty weather Ukraine has had over much of the period since the invasion.
And, of course, that number takes no account of the Russians who have been shot, hit by Ukrainian mortars and artillery, and killed by the inevitable friendly fire. It's even possible that some Russians have died due to exposure because of the cold, wet weather, lack of shelter, their piss-poor clothing and the fact that their commanders don't give a shit about keeping them fed. A recent report from Belarus about Russian casualties coming into hospitals there mentioned how some wounded soldiers arrived with gangrenous wounds (in 2022, for FFS!), so it's entirely possible that some of the Russian soldiers who make it out of the hell Putin has created will later die.
All this indicates that the official Russian death-count of less than 1,500 is completely absurd, and the Ukrainian claim (currently 16,000) is probably much closer to the truth.
The figure of 15000 is within the ballpark of what the US inteligence estimated. Between 7-16k.
Russia had a leak from one of their internal ministers about 10k being dead. So I'm inclined to believe the ukrainian tallies.
On top of that you generally have a 1/3 rule with deaths and wounded. For every combat death you have 3 wounded (cannot fight thus evacuate wounded)
This compounds the fact that russia is now using exicution squads to shoot deserters. So the real death count could possibly be even higher if russia just kills their fleeing and dumps them in an unmarked grave and doesnt jot down the numbers. This is doubly so for troops that arent true russians so they dont have to report it as a russian casualty.
Dont forget about the recent commander who got canned by his own troops. So the worse moral gets (it's pretty low) the more these cases will arise.
The story about the thoroughly pissed-off tank driver who decided to run over his commander was pretty damn funny. Although I'm sure the outcome for the driver wasn't amusing at all, and from what I've seen, unfortunately the officer was still alive when he was stretchered off.
I hadn't heard about the execution of deserters, but it wouldn't surprise me if that was going on. Funny how a "special military operation" can suddenly be considered a war with wartime rules applying when it suits the upper echelons.
Obviously, we have not the faintest idea of what's really going on amongst the Russian grunts and junior officers, but there have to be a lot of guys who are getting very fed up with the whole mess.
Revolutions and mutinies happen when those in authority keep pushing those at the bottom of the hierarchy until things reach the point of being barely tolerable, and then some particularly egregious incident triggers a revolt. In this case, the Russian troops are dealing with really shitty conditions while the Ukrainians constantly pick away at them on one side, and their officers are pushing from the other because they're being pushed in turn from all the way up the chain of command.
I wonder if there's a pressure cooker building up steam on the Russian side. Even the lowliest Russian conscript has to have at least some idea that they're risking life and limb in a war that can't be justified in rational, easily understood terms. The ordinary Russian troops have to understand that the operation was very poorly planned, and that must make them question the authority and wisdom of their commanders. The fact that their equipment and clothing is unsuited for conditions and there have been problems just keeping the troops fed must be making a lot of Russian grunts even more convinced that those above them in the hierarchy simply don't give a shit about them.
I'm sure the Russian officers are doing their damndest to keep a lid on the situation, but there's a limit to how much BS people can tolerate. Soldiers have always talked amongst themselves, and these days it's virtually impossible for officers to completely eliminate chatter and rumours circulating between units.
Something has to give, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's a mutiny that possibly spreads very rapidly. But maybe that's just due to my Western bias. Maybe the average Russian is too gutless, brainwashed and brain-dead to take a look around, conclude that they're in a totally shitty situation and decide they must to something about that, even if there is a real risk that the consequences might not be wonderful.
Those kind of things put out by the media I dont put too much weight in on either side. RT is reporting in Russia that 1,351 Russians have died in the fight as of 4 hours ago. And Ukraine is saying 15,000. Who knows. Probably something inbetween there but dont trust everything you hear. Westerners are bad about this.
This past week Russia media put up a post stating the official numbers at about 10,000 Russian dead.
It was quickly taken down.
Russia says 1300, Ukraine says 15000. I'd say about 10000 Russians have been killed.
Should we be angry that more have died than claimed, and afford Russia 'victim status'? Should we be be angry at Western media, because, 'evil Westerners'?
What reaction are you trying to produce in us?
I am the first to stick my head above the parapet on my personal social media platforms to highlight the situation of innocent Russian civilians. However, OP's post does sound rather pro-Kremlin to me. That, or OP made an ill-advised choice of media statistic to get cross over.
I apologize if my post came off as pro Putin or pro Kremlin. That was not my intention. I have sympathy for the everyday Russian to a degree. Their lives are going to be difficult I'm afraid for a number of years now. Boojum was correct in so far that I was more surprised how Russia could have such high casualties already. Terrible miscalculation.
You might be right, but I didn't read the query that way. I took it as an expression of astonishment that so many Russian soldiers could conceivably have been killed in only a month. And, to be fair, it is a very large number by modern combat standards. The Russians lost about that number during their decade in Afghanistan. And I read today that it's significantly larger than the total US combat deaths in every single conflict the USA has been involved in since the end of the Vietnam war.
For the nothing it's worth, I feel some sympathy for the ordinary Russian grunts. I'm sure that very few of them want to be in Ukraine and most of them haven't a clue why they're there. By all accounts, life for enlisted guys in the Russian military is pretty shit in general, and particularly so for conscripts who are mercilessly abused and exploited, paid next to nothing, and have to endure crappy food and living conditions. But they're stuck in their situation, and they know that not obeying orders is going to result in something very unpleasant happening to them.
I also feel sorry for all the families and friends of those ordinary soldiers who have been killed. By all accounts, it's certain that many of those families won't even get a body back to bury.
I feel zero sympathy for the Russian generals and other senior officers who have been killed. Virtually all of them played a role in the Russian atrocities in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and other places, and the world is a slightly better place without them in it. This is one of those occasions when I wish that I could believe in hell.
I also feel a decreasing amount of sympathy for ordinary Russians who aren't being directly affected by Putin's war. Just how fucking stupid and masochistic are they if a majority believes that Putin is the best possible leader for them? And, yeah, I know they're subjected to a constant barrage of propaganda, but it requires tremendous stupidity and wilful self-delusion in order for Russians to get telephone calls from friends and relatives living in Ukraine and for them to dismiss eye-witness accounts of what's going on there in favour of the obvious BS they see on state TV.
Ukraine prior to the invasion was far from perfect, but at least the Ukrainians had sufficient collective intelligence and guts to rise up in 2013 and kick out the crook, wannabe-autocrat, and Russian stooge that Putin's machinations had placed in the President's office. Similar things have happened in many other former Soviet bloc countries, but the Russians seem to be content to just carry on allowing themselves to be screwed. It's very hard to respect that mentality.
I for one cheer on every casualty on the russian side. Morbid I know for those who are forced to fight. Then again they can always surrender, russia sure as shit hasnt opened the option up to the Ukrainians.
The more mothers who are heartbroken at their sons deaths is just another creeping threat to putin. Breaking more and more normal russians out to the delusion that this is a just war and they are the bad guys in the situation.
Of course if there was a less violent approach to breaking the regular people out of this thinking I would be inclined to support it. Problem is that time isn't on our side and one less russian soldier is one less trooper taking pot shots at civilians. The moral thing to do is resist unjust orders. As there is a provision to refuse orders in the us military to refuse an action if its against moral principles. Russia has less than moral standards for disobeying a loyal Kremlin officer.
All I can say is that I hope this war will be a costly one. Not only in man power (something russia boasts so much about) but also in technology and capabilities that we are thoroughly breaking down and understanding. Such as their use of hypersonic missiles being an indication that they are actively running out of precision guided missiles. Or any tech that is found on site.
All I can say is that this russian invasion has provided a treasure trove into actual russian military strength and technology. Something that is invaluable as putin is making himself to be public enemy no 1 at the world stage.
I'm against going to war with Russia but if they attack well theres nothing for me to do besides supporting our allies and troops and hoping to god biden doesnt fuck this up more.
Speaking of Russian technology, I was amused when I read this story a few days ago:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44879/ukraine-just-captured-part-of-one-of-russias-most-capable-electronic-warfare-systems
I particularly liked how the photo suggests the Russians tried to camouflage the shipping container sized command unit by laying a few pine branches on it. It appears to be resting on its side, so maybe this is just one of the things that happens when you order some eighteen-year-old conscript to drive a heavy vehicle in a combat zone.
You are seeing such high casualties because russian intelligence thought this would be way easier and their "precision" missiles are shit. Long story short normally if you invade a country the defenders have the home field advantage and you need at least 4× the amount of attackers to move forward, russia had the numbers. Over the last month they have yet to get complete air superiority.
So yea 15000 people dying isnt surprising when the infantry are fighting a dug in defender, without ample supplies, all the while using tech from the Soviet era and the defenders are using modern drones and anti tank munitions.
Glory to ukraine
Apparently, there's a persistent meme in some circles about how the Russians haven't put their best equipment and troops into the fight. That's the explanation for why they're doing so badly, and once the Russian conscripts have soaked up enough bullets and the Ukrainians are tired and bored with slaughtering them, then the Russians will unleash hell with their super-weapons and invincible troops. It seems that some of the people in the West who keep this meme alive do so because they adore Putin and his authoritarian style of government, and they very much want him to win.
I watched a YouTube video yesterday where a guy who clearly has a good grasp of military procurement and the structure of the Russian army systematically debunked this idea.
The TLDR is that the indisputable Russian losses seen on the Oryx website pretty accurately reflect the general proportions of different types of hardware the Russian army is known to have. For example, the Russian army does still have some shitty old Soviet-era armour and some of that has indeed been destroyed and captured in Ukraine, but so have very modern tanks.
The fact is that there appears to be a skew towards a disproportionate number of the more modern tanks being taken out of the fight. As the guy who made the video says, it is possible that the crews of the crap tanks are more skilled at dodging anti-tank missiles than the guys in the modern tanks, but that seems kinda unlikely.
In any case, the Russians would have to be pretty damn stupid to put their crappiest tanks and worst troops in the vanguard. The logical move would be to put their very best equipment and troops into the fight first, in the hope that they'd smash through defences when they had the element of shock on their side.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lem3enNkbV0
All those meme arguments are predicated on the assumption that every country has, informally, two armies: an attack army, and a cleanup army. If NATO can keep supplying 1000 missiles a day, neither of Russia’s armies will get very far. The final outcome is heavily dependent on guaranteeing the continuing supply of NATO munitions to Ukrainian defenders.
Russian provocation with chemical or biological weapons is unlikely. It would cause an immediate no-fly to get slapped on.
Logically using your worst troops and gear wont help you. Even if this wasnt the shock and awe tatic of overwhelming your enemy having high casualties is bad for morale no matter if they where your cannon fodder.
If anything it showcases how crappy your military is for using such defunct equipment and people.
I have zero idea why russia decided to go forward with this war. They have very few (if any?) Of their own satilites to help coordinate bombing. They've taken to using dead setting their bombers and than dropping the bombs where the plane thinks it is. Problem with doing that is when a plane is flying it's not taking into consideration how off track it gets when flying. We did the same thing in the navy for our ships when we didnt want to use GPS. Same as a wave knocking you slightly off course the wind and pressure differentials move the bomber off course. Making deadsetting insufficient for going to the exact location you were going to. If you wanted to be vague in where you wanted to be IE within 200 miles of where you wanted it worked. I imagine the same goes for the bombers but those bombs sure as hell wont be precise as most of those "precision" strikes had a 60% miss rate.
So now you see mainstream russian fighters with a taped (yes taped) on civilian gps module.
They were woefully unprepared for fighting any military using "modern" tatics.
Russia has fucked this job up so much I cant imagine any country being afraid of them besides for their liberal use of the word nuke. They do an atrocious job at fighting an enemy that do not want them there.