How high is my risk of corona?

Mortality rate is tiny, dude. Don't worry about it.

If you're going out at all, there's always some chance of you inhaling a microscopic droplet from an infected person's sneeze, cough or exhalation. It's debatable if your improvised face-mask is doing anything more than making you feel safer. Real face-masks have pores which trap virus-carrying droplets; the holes in ordinary cloth are too large to be effective in blocking and absorbing those microscopic droplets.

In fact, your scarf-mask could conceivably be making it more likely you'll catch the virus. Say you come home from one of your trips and the scarf has trapped a few viruses and they're lurking happily on fibres that have been moistened by the droplets they rode in on. Unless you handle the scarf as potentially contaminated, it's possible you'll become infected by taking it off, picking up viruses on your fingers and then touching your eyes, mouth or nose.

The official advice is that improvised masks can reduce the spread of the virus from those who have it to those who haven't yet caught it, but they're only a little better than nothing at all in preventing anyone from getting the virus.

It is true that some of those who are infected have only mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. Like many things with this virus, the reason for this isn't yet clear, but it seems to be a lottery determined by genes, general health and possibly other issues such as the total number of viruses picked up during exposure. Some people have an immune system that deals with the viral invader quietly and efficiently; some people have an immune system which finds the virus challenging but ultimately possible to deal with; some unfortunate people have an immune system which fails to deal with the virus in the early stages of infection and then overreacts and starts attacking the body itself rather than the virus. Age and general health issues do seem to be an important factor in how survivable the virus is, but there have been very elderly people who have sailed through their infection, and healthy young people who have rapidly died of it.

It is not at all clear just how widespread the virus already is, since most countries have faced huge problems instituting screening of their general population. The published infection rates at the moment are obviously only for those who have been tested, and in most places, the only people who have been tested are those who are known to have been exposed to the virus and those who have symptoms which are consistent with those of the virus.

I recognise the figure your father mentioned of around 80% of those with the virus being asymptomatic. From what I've seen, the data behind that figure seems reasonably robust, but there have been other studies which suggest a much lower rate of asymptomatic infections.

Everything is very much up in the air with this virus at the moment. Only large-scale antibody testing of populations will make it possible for researchers to come to firm conclusions about the spread of the virus, the number of asymptomatic cases and the true fatality rate. Unfortunately, that's only going to happen once the dust has settled.

It's clear that an effective vaccine is some months away, and since the virus is so communicable, I think it highly likely I'll get the damn thing sooner or later. It's possible for me and my family to isolate, so we've been doing that for about six weeks now and we'll continue for the foreseeable future.

Partly, we're doing that because it's the socially responsible thing to do, but it's also self-interest. The longer we delay our getting the virus, the more likely it is that effective treatment regimes will be developed, so the more likely it is that we'll get through the illness and survive without any long-term aftereffects.

In spite of what some fools believe, COVID-19 is a very real threat to individuals and healthcare systems, and it's not "just like the flu" because it is so much more easily transmitted by those who appear to be perfectly well, there is no herd immunity due to vaccines and previous exposure, it's impossible to predict how a particular individual will deal with an infection and there are no well-established treatment regimes which can assist the body in dealing with an infection and recovering from it.

Some degree of paranoia about infection is understandable, but it seems to me that the only rational way of dealing with this threat is to use credible, science-based sources to inform yourself about the best ways of reducing your possible exposure, take all the precautions you can in your particular circumstances, and hope for the best.

State what I think? Okay. I think you're a hypochondriac.

Unless everyone in your area has been tested you need to realise the 430 positive people could well be only a tiny percentage of people actually infected. There's also the issue of people who are infectious before they develop any symptoms.

Keep doing what you're doing, including using handwash before you go into stores and after you come out.

It's basically a dumb luck thing. I wouldn't worry about it though. The media is way overplaying this whole thing. Be more worried about the adgenda being put in place than the virus

Seeing how Corona can survive on surfaces for days, can be spread through the air and have people just be carriers, I dont see how people like you think how they can be 100% sure they dont get coronovirus. If it's less than 100% likelyhood of contracting the Wuhan virus you need to make peace that you will get it and survive.

death rate is .03% and the odds of getting it are about 2%
and the survival rate is over 99% this pandemic is really blown out of proportion.
there should never of been a shut down or stay at home

420

Anyone can get it. There's people who lives alone and has been in quarantine for weeks who's gotten it from the groceries people brought them and there's people who's outside all the time who hasn't got it.

Zero

You are massively over reacting to a virus that is essentially no worse than flu and you look like an idiot going out with your mask on.

All I know is they better find a way to either prevent it or cure it asap because lots of people will still die from it and I am a high risk person because my immune system is horrendous from a chronic illness.

Let's hope for all our sakes

Overall the chances that you will get it is in the range of 80-90% in the next year.

In the vast majority of cases you will only be mildly or moderately sick for a less than 2 weeks.

Going by the latest statistics on hospitalization and death rates combined by 2 different studies that tested entire small towns for antibodies that says that at least 10 times as many people have it as the "positive" tests results show.

Your chance of being sick enough to require hospitalization is in the range of 0.25%. Your chance of dying from it is in the range of 0.016% unless you are older than 60 years old and have other medical conditions.

Life is full of risks. Disease and ill health is one of them. These statistics are so low that I suggest you not worry to much.

For an example of one to worry about was MERS - which killed about 1/3 of everyone who got it. That got stamped out by very ridged quarantines before it spread far.

A better comparison is the 1918 flu (which originated in the USA - but was called the "Spanish flu because it killed the king of Spain). It killed between 2.5-5% of the world population. The quarantine and emergency power laws that the Governors and other Officials are using were passed for the 1918 flu.

Based on apparent statics of the day - people who moved their beds to the "parlor" room and opened the windows wide (the parlor room having more and larger windows than any other room in a normal house) survived better. They lived.

The parlor room was in fact the "living room" - which is why all of the houses today have living rooms and not parlors anymore.

Heating systems were henceforth designed to heat new houses with all the windows open (which did not really change in much of the USA until the 1960's and 1970's).

Go out an enjoy life,

Just accept the fact that you will probably get it and not die. The cure will not come in at least a year. The whole point of quarantine is to flatten the curve not stomp out the virus. After the peak theoretically we should be opening things back up because the economy needs it.

I think at this point the pandemic is over and the whole thing is being blown out of proportion.

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