How much worse is each covid mutation going to get?

We've already spent a few months hearing nonstop about how the delta varient is more contagious and produces more severity than the alpha variant.

The alpha variant would only make a smaller percentage of the population severely ill even without the vaccine. And if we've gotten the vaccine, there's a 96% chance of not catching it at all, even catching it mildly, and pretty much no chance of getting it severely.

Then with the delta variant, there's a much higher chance of catching it severely if you've not been vaccinated. And if vaccinated, there's a much lower than 90% chance of not catching it mildly (or a much higher than 10% chance of catching it mildly), and an almost a 10% chance of getting it severely. So it is more severe than the alpha.

Now with the new lambda variant which is getting close to being the next big invasion and has already made a start, they're saying that this one, there will be a much lower than 90% chance of not catching it severely (or a much higher than 10% chance of catching it severely), even after having had the vaccine!

And, each new varient is more contagious than the one before it.

What's happening here!? Is each new variant going to keep getting deadlier until we have a variant just as deadly as the middle ages black plague!? Everyone who caught the black plague died. Will we eventually have a covid variant where there will be a 100% chance of dying once having caught it, even if having had the vaccine!!?

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56% Normal
Based on 9 votes (5 yes)
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Comments ( 37 )
  • LornaMae

    I'll gladly patronize anyone who wants to take my money in exchange for my protection.

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  • LloydAsher

    The mandates are going to kill faster than the mutations. We can deal with the mutations.

    What we cannot deal with is abject authoritarianism and a papers please society that's forming in wake of a more contagious flu. Sucks for people with comorbidities, for the rest of us it's just another flu.

    I will revolt if biden tries another lockdown. Our economy here is already being crippled by the landlord moratorium and unemployment. Not to mention nation wide inflation that is squarely bidens fault.

    Rising gas prices arent helping either. Thanks Biden for policies that reduce our domestic oil production making gas 3$+.

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  • Boojum

    It's all a huge unknown, but I've read articles where (apparently) well-qualified virologists say that they believe the virus has such a small amount of RNA that can mutate that it's extremely unlikely that it's going to turn into a disease with Black Death levels of mortality that can be transmitted even more easily than the currently circulating versions.

    What's going on with Covid isn't weird (and it has nothing whatsoever to do with the vaccine). It's just a novel virus that has a justifiably high profile in an age of easy global travel and an all-pervasive global media.

    All viruses walk a line between transmissibility and lethality. If a virus isn't easily passed on to new hosts, it dies out. If a virus is so rapidly deadly that it doesn't have the chance to spread, then it will die out too. On the other hand, a virus that's easily transmissible but allows its hosts to survive is much more likely to spread very widely. Viruses have no intelligence whatsoever, but their only "reason" for existence is to produce as many copies of itself as it can, so there's evolutionary pressure on viruses to infect new hosts easily, make them ill enough that they spread the virus around, but not actually kill them.

    There is another coronavirus in circulation that now causes the common cold, but it's believed that it might have been responsible for a pandemic in the late 1800s which killed more than a million people worldwide. Several influenza viruses are also known to have become much less lethal with the passage of time. This is typically what happens with viruses.

    And by the way, it's not true that everyone who came down with the Black Death (which was almost certainly a form of bubonic plague) died. It was a truly ghastly disease that caused huge numbers of deaths and caused enormous social disruption, but the survival rate of bubonic plague is greater than 50%, and it's clear from contemporary records that not everyone came down with the Black Death, and some of those who did survived.

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    • I like your response. I, in fact, agree with most of what you've written. I've read your comments before, Boojum, and you seem to have the combination of being intelligent and down to earth, and to also try and make the best of things and not be skeptical. I think that may be the best way to be both smart and realistic. I know that some people will try to tell me that I'm wrong and that their harsh negative outlook is what's real. But, I myself, too often confuse skepticism with realism. It's difficult to see who really is the most correct with their outlook on reality. It's easy to see situations as bleak and scary right now with what this pandemic has done to so much of the world and what it's still doing. But I'm starting to see now that I think that I was leaning too far to the negative and hopeless side with my post up top. I've talked to a couple of my friends today, and my family, and they provided me some comfort. I started rerealising how the media and many websites can blow things up and not always be spot on accurate. This pandemic is very real, but I think that I can try and remain feeling more hopeful than I did when writing my post up top. Reading your comment also helped me feel a little more hopeful.

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      • RoyyRogers

        What I find stupid and fucked up is we never cared this much about every other deadly/problamatic respitory disease or disorder. Which are much much worse and more common but we just shrug it off like its nothing. We also decided to let those poeple die during the pandemic since we were so scared of fucking CORONA. Gee, that kid with a long history of Asthma could not possibly be having an astmha attack. Lets refuse treatment until they come back with a negitive covid test. I had literally every respitory issue there is aside from Corona and somehow never got this stupid plague disease. I do not like being banned from the doctor for respitory issues since I always am the first to get sick from cold, dust or pollen and some of this stuff only goes away with antibiotics. I was literally sick with a severe respitory infection for 2 in a half weeks before this pandemic started. I was getting worse and worse everyday and nothing went away until I got pills. Why the fuck is the goverments solution to "Oh its a pandemic? LETS JUST KILL EVERYONE!"

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  • greekfish

    The whole thing is bizarre anyways. It’s all way overblown in my opinion. It does not matter if something is more contagious. The vast majority of people who get the virus survive. I’m not saying we should be careless, but don’t let this stuff scare you.

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  • It sucks. Its normal for a virus to mutate, the swine flu is still mutating and are worse some years than others for the unvaccinated peeps, but it was never as deadly as covid.
    I think its important to remember that the media likes to turn things into a circus. You should be careful of course but don't go around fearing death all the time, just be mindful of your hygiene and keeping an adequate distance to people you don't see often, especially those who aren't vaccinated.

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    • That is true that the media does blow things up. I guess that part of my fear now has been heightened by everything I've read on many websites.

      You are right about how we shouldn't waste our lives fearing death, and should try to make the best of our time living. I've thought however at times (including very recently) how enjoying life is difficult to do if we're sick, in danger of getting sick at any time, or going through a hard time. But, I'm sure that it's still possible to find a way to make the time we have left alive positive and good, even if we are sick, old, going through hard time, etc., and whether the amount of time we have left is 1 more month or 40 more years

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  • raisinbran

    The real money will be made when they start selling treatments for all the damage they caused.

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    • RoyyRogers

      Aw, so thats why they removed liability. They want to sqeeze everyone out of money for treatment plans.

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  • LornaMae

    First off- VARIANT, not varient.

    And, yes, sadly it's only going to get worse... thank the fucking antivaxxers for not even fucking trying to contribute to eradication of the virus. THANK YOU AND FUCK YOU, MOTHER FUCKERS!

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    • I fixed my spelling error. And I agree with you on the antivaxxers, just think how much better we'd be now if not for them.

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      • LornaMae

        Oh, I think about them EVERY FUCKING DAY! Drives me bonkers! :(

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  • KholatKhult

    New covid variant gives you super strength for 15 minutes on Wednesdays

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  • Vaccines have started to fail too. Heard news of couple of fully vaccinated people dying from the delta plus variant.

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    • Vaccines have helped, but they're not foolproof. Most vaccinated people catch the delta more mildly than the unvaccinated. But, there are still delta deaths from even the vaccinated, the vaccines won't 100% prevent death. It's the lambda mutation and other possible future stronger mutations that I was afraid would take a much darker turn from that, when I posted my comment.

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      • RoyyRogers

        If you are saying the vaccines are not protecting anyone anyways the medicine have failed. For diseases like STREP you are no longer contagious once you take the antibiotics. You can sometimes wieght it out but Antibiotics makes it go away quicker and it stops you from being contagious. This is what good medicine DOES. It fucking works.

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    • YE

      Wonder why people who downvote comments don't reply with a comment to validate their downvote act.

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  • Meatballsandwich

    That's the problem with the vaccines. It's causing the virus to mutate.

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    • The virus was already mutating and will keep doing so. Thats what viruses do...

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    • RoyyRogers

      How would the vaccine make the virus mutate?

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    • Without the vaccines, about half of every one who catches the delta will get it severely or die. But you may be right too. We've got a catch-22 on our hands.

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      • Meatballsandwich

        Yeah. The virus will eventually mutate to become so deadly that every unvaccinated individual will be in a risk group. You, a totally healthy individual, would have to choose between the vaccine or death, basically.

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        • RoyyRogers

          @Meatballsandwhich The Vaccines are not stating to stop you from spreading or catching it. So you are at risk anyways

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        • Every unvaccinated individual is already in a risk group. What I'm scared of is will every unvaccinated and vaccinated individual eventually be in danger because there'd be a mutation so strong that no vaccine would keep it from killing everyone who catches it.

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          • raisinbran

            Psst... it's not real. The tyrants will go through the entire Greek alphabet until they have complete control.

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          • LornaMae

            It IS a possibility...

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  • jodi1955

    covid is a virus and it mutate every year just like the flu which is also a virus. covid will never go away, and if did not know it was said to be a pandemic we would just thought it was a bad flu season. wake up people

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  • olderdude-xx

    I'm not sure how many variants past "L" they have gotten. But they are all named in English alphabetic order.

    A (Alpha) was the 1st one.

    B,C, were less virulent than Alfa.

    D (Delta) is more severe than A

    E,F,G,H, I, J, K, were all less severe than A

    L (Lambda) is between A and D.

    I know that they have identified M, N, and more. Just not sure how many.

    Most of the variants are likely to be less of a problem; but, a worse one could come up.

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  • momgetthecamera

    As bad as the media says it will

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  • darefu

    Funny how even here there seems to be only two categories, vaccinated or unvaccinated. There is another category those with natural immunity.

    There are over 200 million people world wide and close to 40 million in the USA that have had covid 19 and although there have been a few, the numbers of reinfected are much much lower than even the break through cases of people who have been vaccinated.

    Turns out Sweden or the people who believed in herd immunity may have had the correct way to fight this.

    If it had been allowed to run it's course most people would have caught covid A by now, and yes the death from covid A may have been higher but would it have been higher than covid abcdefghi-z over the next five years.

    Your Dr Fouci even said, that although all viruses mutate vaccines force it to mutate faster and drive how they mutate to find away around the vaccine. Requiring constant reevaluating of the vaccine and new or updating the vaccines.

    You don't hear about this third category of people because it doesn't fit the narrative to scare and sensationalize everyone. There is no money in it, to just let it run its course.

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  • Correction

    Good luck finding anybody who has something positive to say about big pharma. They’re absolutely exploiting this for a buck, that’s why they don’t want to waive their patents and that’s why they’re only selling it to the richest countries. You think they care if the virus spreads unchecked in poor countries, increasing the chance of dangerous mutations like the delta variant that emerged in India? That just means boo$ter $hot$ might be necessary eventually.

    You may be overestimating how much they have to do with the vaccine itself, though. They don’t develop it directly and they have no say in the testing or approval of it. They just help mass produce it once they’re approved and then they distribute it with their name on it.

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  • That's right, but we must not be naive either. We got to find the perfect balance of both optimism and keeping our head out of the sand so we can get through this as carefully, wisely, and with creating as little pain as possible among ourselves and others.

    I'm realizing now that I may have been looking at things too darkly. I think.

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  • Do you agree that we may eventually have a varient as deadly as the black plague?

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    • 1WeirdGuy

      I dont agree with that at all. In fact I believe its way overhyped. Its not nearly as bad as theyre saying. People say "500,000 have died just in the USA alone!!!" Well thats barely 0.1% of the US and most of those people were over the age of 65 or had serious health issues. I can give you an article from the CDC that says the actual death rate number is 0.02% of the people who get it (when accounting for ppl who were infected but didnt get tested) .

      Idk where you live but here in my area most people I know had it and tested positive for it once already. These vaccine companies are private companies that also donate a lot of money to the media.

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      • You may be right. I think now that I've been looking at things too bleakly.

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        • Correction

          I normally just let that guy shout his nonsense into the void assuming nobody would take him serious, but just for reference, here’s some context behind that CDC stat he’s trying to cite,

          First, it’s 0.2%, not 0.02%. COVID has already killed 0.02% of the entire US population, so obviously that’d be way off. Second, 0,2% is the lowest number on an estimated range, with their best guess being 0.4%. Third, that was from last year, meaning it was Trump approved. That’s why most experts agree that it’s too low, and the real range is likely somewhere between 0.5% and 1.5%.

          It’s important not to look at things too bleakly, but you don’t want to go too far in the other direction and end up like that guy.

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