It wasn't a bluff, russia actually did it... did you expect this?

*holds rifle in the air*

WOLVERINES!!!

I can't honestly say that I completely believed the intelligence briefings and warnings coming out of the USA. Largely, that was because Saddam's non-existent weapons of mass-destruction permanently tainted the source, but the fact that the Ukrainian government kept expressing doubt played a role too.

I started to seriously wonder if something very bad really was about to go down when I read reports about the meeting where Putin gathered his underlings on camera and essentially twisted their arms to make them sign off on whatever he wanted to do. That bit of political theatre was bizarre and highly suggestive that something very unusual was going on. His rambling, ranting, paranoid speech with transparent lies about Ukraine and how it posed an imminent threat to Russia made it clear he was definitely going to do something major.

I have no idea if the man has actually gone doolally, but the way he's been having meetings with people across tables that are several metres long or across vast open rotundas in the Kremlin is very peculiar. He's supposedly worried about Covid - which is a bit odd at this point, given that he's supposedly in fantastic good health, he's not that old, the Russian vaccine is supposedly amazingly effective, and I'm sure he has access to pretty damn good medical care. So it's impossible not to get the impression that his psychological state is not all that wonderful, and he could be feeling very isolated and threatened.

What I find very worrying is that I've read several pieces by those who are apparently well-informed about his regime who say that it's wrong to believe that he has a little clique of political cronies and oligarchs who are advising him. They say that the reality is that Putin is just as much personally in control of virtually everything in the country as Stalin was in his day.

The really, really stupid thing about what he's decided to do is that, in the name of trying to reduce the influence of the USA in Europe and restrict what he perceives of as the threat of NATO, he's invaded a country with a (more or less) democratically elected government, which wasn't actively doing anything to harm Russia, and who's main beef with Russia was the fact that it had bitten off a large chunk of the country several years ago and both openly and covertly occupied different areas.

How the hell can that do anything other than make other former communist-bloc countries and former parts of the Soviet Union feel less secure and even keener to have a strong NATO presence in their countries?

My main hope at this point is that the Ukrainian armed forces don't collapse under the weight of the overwhelming onslaught they're facing. They're in for a really horrible time, as are the Russian conscripts who have been forced into this shit-storm (I couldn't give less of a fuck about Russian contract soldiers and the mercenaries, since they've proven themselves to be nothing more than murderous thugs in various countries, and they deserve nothing but the worst fate). Things are likely to get difficult for Ukrainian civilians, and - to a lesser degree - ordinary Russian civilians, and that sucks for them too. But maybe if truckloads of full body-bags start getting shipped north and there's a steadily growing amount of Russian scrap metal littering the Ukrainian countryside, someone in the Kremlin with some common sense and some balls will decide to deal with Putin in a very direct and instantly effective way.

Something else which intrigues me is what's going to happen in Belarus in the medium-term future. Lukashenko, the autocrat who runs that country (he has proudly called himself the last dictator in Europe) allowed Putin - who's just about his only friend in the whole frigging world - to use Belarus as a staging ground for the Ukrainian invasion. An awful lot of Belarussians are seriously hacked-off about the repression, poverty, and corruption they have to put up with, and there were major protests in 2020 that brought to mind events that happened just before the fall of Soviet-era dictators like Ceaușescu. Those protests were suppressed with the help of hardware from Putin. If Ukraine stands up to Russia, I have to wonder if the Belarussian opposition will be inspired by that.

i think putin's gone senile or got alzheimers or some shit he's acting too crazy

I had no doubt Russia would act up when there was talk over Ukraine joining NATO. Granted there were many other reasons this all happened but for me, that cememented in my mind that things would absolutely escalate to military action. Think about it, The US is one of the only countries that actually intimidated Russia (somewhat) and the President makes a statement that the US military wouldn't get involved. While they help in other ways, it wouldn't stop Putin from seeing a golden opportunity. Especially with the embarrassment regarding the messy exit of Iraq, and the Taiwan situation remaining undecided as to whether US troops would be sent there if China take were to take action. Lastly, given how China and Russia both have places they want and have now become buddies, it was inevitable they'd get cock. Expect China to act up within the next few years.

Putin is very intelligent when it comes to warfare. You are right he doesn't really care about the sanctions because he has put Russia in a place that sanctions will have a pretty negative effect on a lot of European countries as well as Biden's policies and the great reset Hillary Clinton and Obama played right into his hands. Biden's weakness and failure to act in preventive measures and Putin going to China during the Olympics kind of cemented he could withstand the after effects.

There is some power in thinking a person is crazy and unpredictable as Putin saw trump, and as Biden and the US as well as the rest of the western world now see Putin.

The west can't get too involved because they fear Putin's hand on a nuclear trigger. He has even made that threat 'stay out of this or destruction never seen before will be the results'

Some may see it as a bluff but who knows. The key to bluffing is to be the first with a big enough set of balls or stupidity to put it all on the line and dare someone to call you on it. And if they do be willing to admit defeat or back up your words so it's not a bluff.

I personally think Putin would rather destroy Russia and himself before admitting to another disgraceful failure.

The time to do something, anything was prior to the invasion. Preventive action, you can't bring people back to life and it's already gone too far for Russia to accept any outcome but victory.

With the threat of nuclear escalation the west can't do a whole lot eccept throw money at it and cheer from the sidelines.

Ukraine should have made an open invitation for the western nations, US, NATO, UK, even Canada to come and play extended war games or even established a NATO base for training of Ukrainian forces. Putin may have thought twice before striking a country and risking killing NATO or western military forces. As well as US or UK could have been the first too lay the consequences on the table. ' you hurt our troops you(Russia) will face harsh consequences'.

But no balls Biden even then, would not have been a credible threat. Putin would have probably called the bluff and you would just have more dead western troops.

I did expect it. It cost a lot of money to move all those troops, way beyond what a typical exercise consists of. I cannot imagine that he would have spent all the money unless he was going to get something in return.

The confirming key was when the started evacuating the children, elderly, and woman from the "rebel" areas of Eastern Ukraine into already built evacuation camps in Russia.

There was no reason to do that if you were not going to invade.

Putin is 5 foot 5 inches. When I found that out I instantly said crap. It's always little guys with an inferiority complex that have to f up everything. Prayers for all the innocents lost cuz of this piece of shit.

I did not expect the invasion honestly. Even when they put troops on the border I thought it was a bluff. I think China makes a big move for Taiwan soon tho. We need to keep Taiwan from going into Chinas hands and maybe Biden needs to grow some balls and deploy troops to Taiwan. Im not an expert on foreign policy but it seems if theres tens of thousands of troops in Taiwan I dont think China would risk invading. Just as I dont think Russia would have invaded if US troops were in Ukraine.

I'm not nearly as up to date with things as I should be. Usually the news is my nightly routine but I've been off my game as of late. I'm also not skilled in politics; pretending otherwise would be idiotic.

By the time I noticed, it was becoming increasingly apparent that Putin was being serious in his plans and that the international warnings were warranted. I wish I could say that I was suprised by the invasion but I can't. What surprised me was the speed in which it happened.

As Boojum said, there's going to be plenty of suffering across the board for that region of the world. Ukraine is going to get the worst of it, but Russian citizens are seemingly unable to express their opinion on the war. (Protestors are being arested. It's clear that Putin doesn't care about these sanctions. We just have to hope he doesn't proceed further.

I thonk he knows exactly what he's doing. He wants to cause economic harm to the West to make himself stronger. In his mind anyway. He's a paranoid warmonger.