Ukraine invasion: thoughts after 3 days

Two things I've found interesting about the invasion so far:

#1. How the Ukrainian locals have "cleverly" switched direction signs at key road points to confuse the invading Russian forces, with an introduced sign reading "GOOD LUCK".

#2. Seeing Ukrainian women volunteering to make Molotov cocktails.

There's an old saying that truth is always the first casualty of war. That's definitely the case here. I doubt if anyone - including the upper echelons of the Russian and Ukrainian governments - fully understands the situation on the ground in a country that's about twice the size of Texas (and about 10% larger than France). Even if they were to have a perfect grasp of what's happening, what they'd be saying publicly would be at least shaded to gain them something in the domestic and international information sphere if not outright lies.

As is always the case these days, there are videos appearing on the internet which claim to depict little snippets of what's happening. But as is also always the case, there's a lot of BS floating around - sometimes spread by stupid people, sometimes by bad actors - and it can be very difficult to verify the accuracy of anything.

I have also seen those reports of Russian convoys running out of fuel. One in particular was quite darkly amusing, since it involved a local encountering a stationary convoy in a forest. When the Ukrainian guy asked the Russians what was up and they told him they'd run out of fuel, he asked if they'd like a tow back to the border. After having a good laugh about that, the Russians told him (for what it's worth) that they had no idea what was going on and only a general idea of where they were supposed to be heading for.

Another video I've seen showed a convoy - which seemed to be mainly combat bridging equipment - that had been thoroughly shot up and torched. I have no idea if that was an ambush or another stalled convoy, but the fact that it was utterly destroyed indicates pretty clearly that the almost certainly lightly armed Russian drivers and combat engineers hadn't been able to call on air, artillery or armour support (or maybe even proper infantry support) to deal with whoever was attacking them.

It would be incredibly ironic if the Russians are really having serious problems with logistics. One of the classic examples of how Hitler's delusional overconfidence led ultimately to the failure of the Nazi regime was how he sent the Wehrmacht charging across the Russian steppes with little concern about his lines of supply, since he was absolutely certain Russia would collapse and surrender in just a few weeks. The German's inability to keep the troops and equipment properly supplied led directly to the failure of Operation Barbarossa. If the Russians are having problems keeping their vehicles on the move after just a couple of days in Ukraine, someone has screwed up in a very big way.

I admit that I know nothing for certain about the inner workings of the relationship between Putin and his generals. But I do wonder if over-confidence in his political and military prowess and his fixation on restoring the glory of Mother Russia and creating a USSR Mk II might have resulted in him bullying his generals into believing that the Ukrainians would cave in a matter of hours, so they didn't need to commit all of the troops and they didn't need to worry about supplies. It's beginning to look like that in Putin's fantasy, the Russians would roll in, the Ukrainian people would welcome their saviours with open arms, and then everyone would settle down for a comfortable little occupation while a new government that was correctly aligned with Russian interests was sorted out.

From what little we're seeing and hearing, it looks like the reality is that the Russians are facing are a bunch of very pissed off Ukrainians. One of the videos that's apparently gained a huge number of views is of a Ukrainian woman confronting a much bigger, armoured and armed Russian soldier on one of the streets of her home town. She walks up to him and asks him what the hell he's doing in her country, to which he obviously has no good reply. She then offers him some sunflower seeds and tells him that he should put them in his pocket so that when he dies, at least something good will come of it. To give the Russian his due, he remains polite. But that sort of confrontation in fluent Russian with someone who looks very much like his friends and family has to be making the ordinary troops - many of whom are apparently conscripts - wonder what they're doing in Ukraine and question if they're really on the side of the good guys this time.

And, of course, there are a lot of Ukrainians who have no interest in giving the Russians something as nice as a handful sunflower seeds.

One of the things I find most impressive about the whole situation is how president Zelenskyy is dealing with it. The guy was a comic actor, and he apparently had no aspirations to be a politician before a political party was formed by employees of the TV company which produced a show he starred in as teacher who was unexpectedly elected president. He was largely seen as a joke candidate, but he ran a good virtual campaign and he was successful. After his election in 2019, he was still seen as something of a joke, and his political naivety certainly resulted in him making some misjudgements. But over the last few weeks - and especially over the last few days - he has definitely grown into the role. The fact that he's staying in Kyiv and he's smart enough to put out videos which clearly show him outside in the city as it is now rather than with some anonymous backdrop that could be in a studio or bunker anywhere has to inspire ordinary Ukrainians who are used to politicians always looking after Number One first and foremost.

Having said all that, if the Russian military has proved anything over the years, it is that they can be totally ruthless, murderous thugs. So now we see them deliberately targeting residential areas, power stations and petroleum depots. It's the same playbook as the one they used in Syria, Georgia, Chechnya and various other lesser actions.

The biggest unknowns at this point are obviously just how much violence and destruction Putin is willing to inflict on people he supposedly believes are _actually_ just Russians under another name, and how much punishment the Ukrainians can take before the will to resist collapses. It's all very well the Ukrainian government arming civilians with automatic weapons and telling them how to make Molotov cocktails, but it's pretty damn hard to keep up the will to continue fighting if you're some retired guy with a couple of friends from your chess club huddling in a basement with your AK47s while Russian fuel-air missiles are turning multi-storey buildings into piles of rubble all around you (and Russian hyperbaric missiles have been spotted in the vicinity of Ukraine's border).

Russians, they always fuck it up militarily. Even in WW2 the only reson they were useful is because there were so many of them and to invade Russia is disastrous when your enemy applies scorched earth tactics.

As Stalin said though "Quanity has a quality all its own". Russia will win against Ukraine long term because Ukraine just hasn't got the comparative manpower, but if they try and annex the whole country they'll be in real trouble.

Slava Ukraini!

My fear is that Putin is just crazy enough that eventually a nuke will get used. It's all over then.

I swear to god it seems they didnt learn from the winter war. They immediately went for the capital, opening themselves up to get cut off and causing logistical hell.

Only explanation for this for russia to do this. Is that they are just throwing their crappiest equipment and men at the problem and they honestly thought (and let's be honest some of us too) thought ukraine would fall within the initial day of invasion. Now russia is losing even more resources on a war that they are getting sanctioned the hell out of.

Putin is trapped. If he cuts his losses theres an almost guaranteed chance for a coup d'etat. Since he started and then lost a war almost immediately. If he pushes further he might not even get overt support from China.

Honestly it looks pretty favorable to the Ukrainians. As an american I can solidly support and hope they get a crate of high grade ordinances for our friends in ukraine.

Ukraine has to understand why they arent getting troops from nato or America. If they were getting invaded by a similar sized power they'd get troops. Since its russia we have to be more tactful with sending actual people there. Weapons? Naw we are just donating them to a good home... makes sense to supply people who are killing our eventual enemy. Bonus points that they are the good guys in this.

Information after Day 5: Now it gets tough.

A 3 mile long supply convoy made it from Belarus to the Russians just north of Kiev... Which means that that Russian Military group has fuel and supplies for at least several days.

A 40 mile long convoy of tanks, armored vehicles, and supplies is now on its way out of Belarus headed to Kiev.

That spells real trouble.. and Kiev may fall with all of that.

Since the original Russian strategy has failed - now its likely massive destruction of everything (including civilian targets) until they Russia wins... or gets driven back. This would be very ugly.

On a good side: The fundamental problem Russia has is that they are sending far to few troops to hold Ukraine if they were to conquer it (even the northern regions). They would need 3-4 times the number of troops. So the Russians will be very vulnerable to insurgent fighters.

Within days there will be over 100,000 new western trained volunteers in country to make up the "International" Ukraine military branch from which a revitalized and well equipped army can start marching from western Ukraine to eastern Ukraine and taking back Russian controlled areas.

The NATO countries that have Russian fighter jets are donating them to Ukraine. 56 Mig-19's and 14 SU-25's. The Ukrainian Pilots know how to fly these aircraft and fire their weapons. Ukraine pilots are already picking these aircraft up and flying them to Ukraine (with full weapons loaded).

The Best and pleasantly surprising news is that Poland has announced that Ukraine can fly their newly expanded air-force out of several of their airbases (where the maintenance, parts, and missiles for the Mig-29's are) if they cannot fine usable airbases in Ukraine. Russia dare not attack them when they are in Poland Airspace or being serviced inside Poland.

Speculation on my part: But I have to wonder how many Polish Mig-29 pilots resign their commission from the Polish Air-force today, only to accept a commission in the "International wing of the Ukrainian Air-force" shortly thereafter.

If that happens... that 40 mile long convoy of tanks, armored vehicles, and supplies might quickly be 40 miles of destroyed vehicles and dead Russians.

I can dream - can't I.

It's the morning of the 28th, so the start of the fifth day after the Russian invasion.

According to a Ukrainian military spokesman, more than 5,000 Russian soldiers have so far died. Body counts of enemy combatants should always be taken with at least a tablespoon of salt. That number may have been plucked out of the air for propaganda purposes, or there might be a group in the Ukrainian defence organisation that's keeping careful count and only adding to it when they've seen photographic proof of Russian casualties. Most likely, it's something between those two extremes. There's certainly no shortage of videos and photographs of shot-up and burned-out Russian hardware, so it's certain that Russians are definitely dying, being injured and captured.

What I find striking is that, during the ten years of the Soviet-Afghan War, it's estimated that around 15,000 Soviet soldiers were killed. If even a significant fraction of that death toll has been reached after only four full days in Ukraine, this Russian adventure will have to go down in the history books as not only a huge political miscalculation, but also as one of the worst organised and implemented military campaigns since Operation Barbarossa.

Information After Day 4:

My understanding is that Russia did capture a small city near the Black Sea of about 100,000 (near Crimea).

They have not captured any other cities, and the Ukrainian Air-force and Missile defense system is still operational over much of Ukraine.

Some EU Countries will be giving the Ukrainian Air force replacement and more modern fighter jets. Expect them to arrive within 24 hours. The pilots will need some training on the differences.

The EU is also purchasing and supplying a whole host of military supplies for Ukraine.

Many thousands of experienced military veterans from many western countries are headed to Ukraine to enlist in the "Foreign Legion" version of the Ukrainian military. Key is that this includes a fair amount of people who know how to operate modern western anti-aircraft missile systems, which I believe will arrive shortly.

Here is what I understand to be a current map of how little area of Ukraine is believed to be under Russian control.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/183C/production/_123440260_ukraine_invasion_east_map_2x640-nc.png

Let's just say that Russia has a long way to go to conquer Ukraine - and there is plenty of places for Western assistance to safely land and new troop mobilization to be based out of (with newly supplied western equipment).

As a supporter of world peace, I'm both saddened an disappointed. I knew that a world power would, inevitably, get involved in another war after US troops had withdrawn from the middle east. I just hoped it wouldn't have been so soon. I also didn't expect it to be Russia that declared the war. China invading Taiwan was what I imagined would happen.

I feel deep sympathy for all parties involved; barring the individuals directly in the Russian government and those enforcing its orders. While obviously my heart is mostly extended to the people od Ukraine, I do recognize that not all Russian people want this war. If what the Ukrainian media is saying is true, the conscripted men from Russia don't really want this war. The protesters who are being arrested for speaking their minds don't want the war. (No, you should not need a permit to protest. That defeats the purpose of a protest.)

I wish there was more we, the common man, of foreign countries could do to help. I'm well aware that the group Anonymous has began taking credit for the hacking of Russian websites but there's only so much that hacking can do. It's just disheartening that this all had to happen now.

Hand the Ukraine to Putin, the alternative is potentially a world wide shit show.

So the Ukraine will switch governments, big deal. Whole lot better than a whole lot of dead people.

I think it's awesome.

It's not real.