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Just want your take on this Russia/Ukraine conflict war? If Russia is serious about taking over Ukraine? Do you think they can succeed and get their mission accomplished? Or will Ukraine fight back and stand their ground and be able to stop Russia from successfully invading? Your thoughts?
| Russia | 6 | |
| Neither, they will find peace and not fignt | 3 | |
| Ukraine | 16 |
Russia might occupy Ukraine and slaughter the opposition, but it will lose.
They lost the moment they initiated this barbaric and disgusting attack. The whole world is against Russia now.
Banks, businesses, sports, media, transport... Give the reds what they deserve, stop Putin and the sickos at the KGB. Maybe then the Russian people can live normal lives.
Because the biggest losers in any war are the regular people.
You’re giving me the shivers. Are you implying that the Ukrainian military is already getting precise real-time tactical situation images from American infrared satellite links?
If Russia truly wants Ukraine, they'll take it eventually. It won't be nearly as fast as they would like but the numbers game will inevitably work in the favor of Russia. Now let's look at the hard facts. This war isn't going the way the Russian government would have liked.
1. Russian troops started the war demoralized, with some claiming they weren't even informed they were going to war.
2. The logistical elements of the invasion have thus far proven to be in the favor of Ukraine. Russian soldiers running out of gas and getting lost, air combat almost entirely dominated by Ukraine, and the push into the country has gone far slower than ideal for Russia.
3. Putin, as well as other government officials, seem genuinely surprised by the unification of the west. While the sanctions may not be deterring the war, it's likely to be an "1 thousand papercuts" situation.
4. Volunteers forces, both trained and untrained, from other nations have begun to arrive to Ukraine. The donations of equipment have also started to come into play.
5. Finally, Ukraine's president is currently one of the most universally liked people on the planet right now. Conversely, Putin is one of the most hated. That's likely a small factor in morale although it's not a major one.
I'm of the opinion that it will eventually fall, but Russia isn't going to walk away from this unscathed. I just hope Vlady doesn't take the (literal) nuclear option. If he does, I hope his military commanders refuse to go forward with it.
The numbers do not work in Russia's favor. To take and hold a country where the people absolutely don't want you there takes about 1 solder for every 4 people in the area or country. Russia would need about 11 million troops in Ukraine to pull it off.... and that is just not going to happen. They don't have that many troops and the Russian population would revolt if Putin tried to conscript even 1/2 million more troops.
They don't even have enough troops to conquer short term the entire country. Yes they can take some small areas and may be able to conquer some of the cities.
Please take a look at this map - after 6 days of a substantial invasion by Russia. No way are they going to get the whole country - even if they brought 100% of both their Army and Air-Force.
https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIF.qHRcZFVLy5Z20Ej5phognQ%26pid%3DApi&f=1
Belarus just allowed nuclear weapons to be staged there by russia. Last week they weren't a nuclear power. Now they are.
In better news the Wagner group (russian mercenaries) hitsquad against the ukrainian president was neutralized (dead and/or captured)
If anyone remembers when the wagner group tried to attack a us military base in syria and got massacred this was the same wagner group. Their expertise is not exactly the best.
You know that russia is running out of good options when they need to use a mercenary to take care of extremely important buisness.
I've not seen that report about Wagner, but I get almost all my news from mainstream media that's very careful to publish only things that can be verified, and that's obviously challenging at the moment.
I wouldn't be surprised if Wagner had been tasked with assassinating Zelensky, although doing that would suggest Putin doesn't have much faith in even his elite forces. It would also be a really stupid move. Firstly, it would make Zelensky a martyr, and every cause needs at least one of those in order to last. Also, for all that he's inspirational and a great public face of Ukraine to the international community, the guy's an actor, and he seems to be bright enough to leave the military side of things to people who know what they're doing, so it's unlikely that the Ukrainian resistance would crumble if (or, most likely, when) he dies.
But then making really stupid moves seems to be Putin's forte at the moment.
I'll put on a tin foil hat here:
Putin is getting paranoid of his own elite troops. You saw how he sat so far away from his own generals. That man fears he may have a few targets on his own back. Fearing all they way down to his own elite troops that may just have the balls to assasinate their own commander in chief.
That or he cares too much about his troops... which probably ain't true
It's actually impossible for Russia to win long term. They might be able to occupy parts of Ukraine and set up a puppet government. But it will not last.
Putin was under the misunderstanding that Ukrainians would roll over and allow themselves to be subjugated (if not outright welcome Russian control). Instead its the opposite. The vast majority of 44 Million people will fight the Russians with everything they've got.
Russia could send 100% of it's entire Army, Air-force, and conscript 4 times more people than that... and still not stand a chance of holding onto Ukraine (the history of occupied countries and puppet governments is very clear on that). That would be even if the Western Countries would not be supply the insurgency with weapons to shoot up all vehicles, helicopters, and low flying aircraft (not to mention likely high altitude anti-aircraft missiles as well).
All Putin can hope to achieve is a short term conquering of the major cities via massive bloodshed, and not much of the rural areas.
I predict that portions of Western and Central Ukraine cannot even be conquered by Russia - at all, and the remaining Ukraine Government and Military will have those areas as a base to build up a fully western equipped air-force and army to kick Russia out of Ukraine, and perhaps seize parts of Russia and Belarus territory.
While international law does not allow one country to just annex parts of another, there is a clearly stated exception. If you are attacked by a country and in the ensuing defense and winning against the aggressor(s). You can legally annex territory from the aggressors previous land.
Both Belarus and Russia had better rethink what they are doing. Europe and the USA are going to have no problem funding Ukraine to fight as their proxy against Russia if that prevents them from having to fight Russia directly.
I also predict that both Western Europe and the USA (and perhaps others) will give or "lend/lease" all required military equipment needed to do the job long term. Several years from now I expect that the Ukraine Air-Force will be flying F15's and F16's, have a very large western anti-aircraft missile system (not sure which one) Patriot Anti-Missile batteries, and perhaps even M1 Tanks (although I think this war is showing how out of date Tanks are in the age of portable anti-tank missiles).
Russia is using old tech tanks in improper fashion. You do not advance tanks without both air and ground support. Russia has done both of these and have clearly lost the tanks. Driving tanks though urban areas are difficult because of a tanks main disadvantage: visibility. If a tank cant see its target or knows where enemies are they are just a large block with a gun.
That being said russia can win by just killing all the defenders. At that point it would only be a victory in gaining ruined cities of rubble and have every single country begging to join nato.
The majority of Ukraine population is not in the Cities, and I assure you that the rural folks will be quite willing to join an army and kick Russia out.
Ukraine is a rather large country in Europe with a substantial population. It's just impossible for Russia to hold it.
As long as Russia doesn't make a long series of truly idiotic tactical decisions and the troops on the ground remain convinced that it's a war they should be fighting and can win, Russia will prevail. They have a much larger military machine that's much better equipped, and the Russian army has proved over and over in the past that they really don't give a shit about slaughtering civilians.
But that "win" will be only in the sense that they crush the Ukrainian military, occupy at least a large part of the country and install a puppet regime which will suck Putin's dick.
In the larger sense and in the long term, it's inevitable that Russia will lose, because what's going on right now in Ukraine is the creation of a mythos. It's going to have the same power in the minds of Ukrainians that the Battles of Lexington and Concord and Valley Forge have for Americans. It's going to be what the Spanish Armada, Dunkirk and the Blitz are to Brits. It's going to be what Stalingrad is to Russians.
The last, of course, is what's supremely ironic about all this. In this replay of history, Putin has adopted the role of Hitler, launched an unprovoked attack on an unprepared country, and the brave underdogs are standing their ground as best they can in the face of impossible odds.
I'm sure there were some Ukrainians who bought Putin's line about Ukraine not _really_ being a country in its own right, but I'm pretty sure what he's doing is persuading a lot of them that it is.
I dont get his point about not wanting a nato country on his border... he already has them on his border and they are closer to Moscow than ukraine is.
Even more stupidly is that by attacking a non nato country that signed (a do not invade treaty) after denuclearization. Just validated the case for non nato countries to start going into nato for defensive reasons. Finland and sweden both know of Russias wrath. I would perfer Finland to not be invaded... again.
Right now it doesnt look good for Russia. I'm afraid Russia will start raining hell from the sky on Ukraine cities.
We are now well past a week into the confict and there are 2 key points:
1) Russia has not yet been able to dominate and totally control the sky. The Ukrainian Air-Force is still operating and inflicting losses on the Russian forces. There are still Anti-Aircraft batteries that are still shooting down high altitude Russian aircraft.
This is an unbelievable "air power" failure by Russia (given that they have an air-force that is 20-30 times larger).
2) Russia has not been able to adequately resupply most of their northern troops. Without resupply their troops run out of ammo, food, fuel, and water... and essentially either can surrender of die of starvation and freezing where they are.
The 40 mile convoy is a screw-up of enormous proportions. I watched 4 different Western Generals on Youtube last night who cannot believe that the Russian Military could not foresee the difficulties and have a plan that worked to resupply (they didn't straight say it - but essentially everyone of them said it was stupidity on a grand scale and could not believe that any serious military planner would have done what Russia did).
I was worried when Ukraine allowed the 3 mile long convoy through. It now appears that was a strategic plan to show Russia that they could send their main supplies down the same highway. Ukraine then blew up a key major bridge that stopped the front of the 40 mile convoy dead... and apparently has had several very successful attacks at later points in the convoys (I wonder if they targeted the fuel trucks).
The trucks and armored vehicles are heavy enough that if they leave the road they just sink into the mud. That's really ironic as northern Ukraine is historically known for having several armies get stuck in the mud up there and be rendered ineffective.
That 40 mile long armor and supply column is completely neutralized. I hear people saying that it will take Russia a few days to figure it out. That's clearly not true as its been stopped in the same place now for 4 days. My guess is that the vehicles have run out of fuel just idling to keep the cabin warm, and that the troops have run out of food and water too along most of the convoy.
Mother fucking USA is behind all this. They want to stay as the superpower and bring other countries down by forcing their hand.
USA + Nato: Dont invade Ukraine.
Russia: *invades Ukraine*
95% of the UN: Sanctions russia.
You: America's fault
Russia didnt have to invade. I dont understand what you mean when aparently we forced russias hand. It's not for russia to say who and who cannot join nato as the ENTIRE point of nato is a defensive pact against russia.
Putin and his failing economy: lets take Kyiv
*Russian economy further tanks*
Russia will "win" eventually. They just have to many soldiers to throw at the problem. Although, I think in the long run this will cost Russia dearly. Time will tell. I'm just hoping the nukes don't come out
Actually, they don't have enough people to throw at Ukraine to conquer and hold it. That would take about 11 million troops based on what it takes to really subjugate a population that just does not want you there (1/4 of the population you are trying to control).
Hold it? Maybe not. But they have enough men and bombs to basically kill most Ukrainians. Is that winning? My hope is that Vlad sees what a colossal fuck up he has started and pulls out his forces. I don't want deaths on either side. Enough of that shit.
Russia does not have enough conventional bombs and artillery to kill enough of the Ukrainian population to prevent the remaining Ukrainians from winning in the end.
I'll admit, that they might be able to kill a couple million. That leaves them with about 41 million to go.
Russia will overthrow Ukraine & occupy it. But eventually withdraw.
For Russia the benefit of "winning" just isn't going to be worth the cost of the occupation.